The highest-ranked teams in Group B collide for what could be a battle for qualification or top spot as they seek to finish above the other.
Mexico have won six and drawn three of their last 12 games against Ecuador but it was La Tri who got the victory in their only previous Copa America group stage meeting in 2015.
Diego Cocca was appointed as Mexico’s head coach in February 2023 and he led them to two wins and three draws in his first five matches. The CONCACAF Nations League semi-final did not go according to plan as it ended in a 3-0 defeat and a third-place playoff against Panama which they won.
The manner of their embarrassing defeat to the USA led to a massive outcry and the sacking of Cocca to be replaced by Jaime Lozano ahead of their Gold Cup campaign which started with a 4-0 thrashing of Honduras.
Haiti were also defeated but Qatar’s win in the final group game did not affect their passage to the quarterfinal against Costa Rica. Next up, Henry Martin, Luis Chavez and Roberto Alvarado all struck in a comprehensive semi-final victory over Jamaica which led them to a 1-0 win over Panama in the final.
Lozano was promoted from interim to permanent head coach and there were three draws with one win over their next four friendly matches. However, Mexico began the Nations League Last Eight tournament with a defeat to Honduras in the first leg of the quarterfinal.
El Tri bounced back in the home leg to tie the game 2-2 on aggregate and won in the penalty shootout, advancing to the Copa America and a date against Panama in the semis.
The final international window of the 2023/24 season saw Mexico defeat Panama 3-0 in the semi-final and plot to dethrone the USA but they imploded again in a 2-nil defeat.
Being the most successful national team in CONCACAF, El Tri is arguably at its lowest point in decades having exited the last World Cup in the group stage for the first time in 44 years and failed to qualify for the Olympics tournament for the first time since 2008.
The up-and-down nature of their fortunes is emphasised by a turnover of three managers in the last 15 months with only three wins in their last nine games already ringing alarm bells over their current manager’s future.
Nevertheless, Mexico have great defensive strength and are famously hard to break down, they must harness that core in a major tournament this summer. Ecuador are one of the fastest-growing national teams in South America and they will pose a notable challenge to Mexico.
Having made a decent account of themselves at the World Cup in Qatar, La Tri started their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign with a fine and three-point deficit as punishment for falsifying birth documents for Byron Castillo in the previous World Cup qualification series.
Yet, they are fifth having won three, drawn two and lost one of their six matches so far.
A Lionel Messi goal decided their opening game against Argentina in Buenos Aires but they bounced back with wins over Uruguay and Bolivia, the latter coming thanks to a late strike from Kevin Rodriguez.
Goalless draws against Colombia and Venezuela followed then they beat Chile 1-0 in the final game of 2023.
Felix Sanchez Bas’ side took on Guatemala and Italy in the United States of America for a couple of friendlies ahead of the Copa America and they won the first before losing 2-1 to the Europeans.
Ecuador have never won a major competition and this is a great chance for this new generation of quality players to better their best-ever run of two fourth-place finishes.
Given their improving fortunes in recent years, Ecuador appear as an underdog this summer and they must live up to that billing.
Of course, talents like Moises Caicedo, Pervis Estupinan, Piero Hincapie, Jeremy Sarmiento and Kendry Paez are getting the whole nation excited and they are under pressure to deliver a notable campaign.
A good outing against Mexico would attract the attention of rivals and set them on a great path as they are poised to impress during Copa America 2024.
Match tickets
This continental showdown is scheduled to take place on Monday, 1 July 2024 with kick-off scheduled for 1 AM UK time. Match tickets are available for sale on the websites of both national federations as well as the Copa America organizers so you can hurry to purchase yours.
The game will be played at the State Farm Stadium in Arizona and you can expect a crowd of passionate fans from both sides. Given the location’s relative proximity to the two countries, Mexico and Ecuador fans will be present in large numbers, hoping to witness history.
Getting match tickets from official sources may be a long wait so we advise those still looking for Mexico vs Ecuador tickets to get theirs on a ticket resale site.
Team news
Mexico had a couple of injury concerns in the March international window with Israel Reyes and Victor Guzman sidelined due to injury. They should yet be back available for the start of Copa America and their manager would want his best legs available for this clash with Ecuador.
The Tricolor had a full-strength side to call upon during the March international window and they will be hoping it stays the same. It is pertinent that their players have built some momentum for this game which would decide the final group standings.
Line-ups
The battle for control in the middle of the park could be interesting with both managers preferring to pack the centre.
Hence, Edson Alvarez would play a crucial role in the Mexico midfield with his presence giving the team a reliable shield for the back four. The West Ham man is one of the team’s leaders and he must battle to help his team to victory here.
Mexico: Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Sanchez, Alvarez, Chavez; Lozano, Martin, Gimenez
Ecuador have built some positive momentum in recent years and they would look to profit from that in order to better their quarter-final finish from the 2021 Copa America tournament.
Their strongest side is capable of reaching those heights and the manager must provide them with the technical tools to flourish.
Ecuador: Dominguez; Torres, Pacho, Hincapie; Preciado, Franco, Caicedo, Estupinan; Rodriguez, Valencia, Sarmiento
Prediction
This match is set to be very physical but Ecuador’s wing-backs could be crucial to their performance on the day. They would help to increase numbers at the back as well as create width when the team needs to attack and create chances to score.
An interesting battle awaits, and we think nothing will separate these sides.
Mexico 1-1 Ecuador
