That’s according to a new report by the British Retail Consortium, which says the job losses will be because of the digital revolution reshaping the industry, more property leases coming up for renewal, the cost of labour rising and the cost of technology going down.
However, those jobs that remain will be more productive and higher earning.
It also suggests store closures on UK high streets and town centres could exacerbate the impact on employment in already fragile communities, with weaker regions and the most vulnerable low paid staff most at risk.
The result will see improvements in the quality and variety of the offer to customers, continuing competitiveness in pricing and greater productivity from fewer, but better jobs.
The report is based on research and modelling across the industry involving the most senior executives in retail businesses.
While the primary responsibility for managing these elements rests with the retail industry, the government is also a key player and the report makes a number of recommendations to ensure the successful implementation of policy and mitigate the impact of the changes.
These include:
• Rebalancing the burden of taxation by reforming the business rates system.
• Ensuring the remit of the Low Pay Commission is strengthened and clarified with regard to the national living wage.
• Α greater employer leadership of the apprenticeship levy, including more discretion for employers over how and where it is spent.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson says: “The key conclusions of today’s report are not surprising – there will be a further contraction in retail space and a reduction in the number of people employed in retail.
“Individual retailers will find their own paths to 2020 and beyond, but from an industry perspective, we hope to see technology and competition resulting in better experiences for the customer and better jobs for those working in retail.
“From a government perspective, the more significant insights in this report lie in where and how these changes may happen and the differential impact they are likely to have on people and places across the country and we would like to work with government to manage the impact of the changes on the most vulnerable.”
